Plan

Plan: The United States federal government should substantially increase its investment of port security.

Contention One is Terrorism


Recent cuts leave port security vulnerable – we don’t have the funds to expand and adapt to problems

AAPA 3/7[American Association of Port Authorities], (“Maritime Security”, http://aapa.files.cms-plus.com/Maritime%20Security%202012.pdf, 3/7/12)
AAPA urges Congress to continue… at the federal level.


Specifically, cargo operations aren’t sophisticated enough

Frantz 7/15 (Douglas, Washington Post National Security Editor and Deputy Staff Director and Chief Investigator for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, “Port Security: U.S. Fails to meet Deadline for Scanning of Cargo Containers”, Washington Post, http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/port-security-us-fails-to-meet-deadline-for-scanning-of-cargo-containers/2012/07/15/gJQAmgW8mW_story.html)
The administration’s failure to meet the… a shipment of personal computers from Japan.


Terrorists are already stealing the material for nukes now – it’s not a question of IF the attack will occur, but WHEN

NPR 3/26 (Quoting: Matthew Bunn, associate professor at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government, “Report Examines Effort To Secure Loose Nukes”, http://www.npr.org/2012/03/26/149411800/report-examines-effort-to-secure-loose-nukes, 3/26/12)
As Mike Shuster said a moment ago… smugglers, as yet uncaught, still have a substantial chunk of this highly enriched uranium.


Building a weapon is surprisingly easy – it’s just a question of if they can get enough material for the bomb

Maerli2k(Morten Bremer Science Program Fellow, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, Quoting: Luis W. Alvarez, prominent nuclear weapons scientist for Manhattan Project, “Relearing the ABCs: Terrorists and ‘Weapons of Mass Destruction;.” THE NONPROLIFERATION REVIEW, Summer-2K, p. 111-112.)
A striking parallel can be seen in the discussion surrounding… one design that is about one-meter long and weighs no more than 300 kilograms would lead to a nuclear explosive.

Terrorists have the motive to attack


A. The anti-muslim video

Ephron 9-15 (Dan Ephron has been Newsweek's Jerusalem bureau chief since January 2010. Previously, he served as a national-security correspondent and deputy bureau chief for the magazine in Washington. His stories have also appeared in The Boston Globe, The New Republic, and Esquire. “As Muslims Protest, America Is on Alert” http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/09/15/as-muslims-protests-america-is-on-alert.html)
Thebodies of Ambassador Christopher Stevens and three… “If nothing happens here before the end of the year, it will be a miracle.”


B. The assassination of Bin Laden

LA Times 5/7 (Los Angeles Times news service, quoting Al Qaeda, “Al Qaeda threatens revenge against U.S.”, http://articles.latimes.com/2011/may/07/world/la-fg-qaeda-warning-20110507, 5/7/12)
Reporting from Islamabad, Pakistan — Al Qaeda vowed… U.S. officials insisted the people killed were militants.

Cargo is the most probable method of attack for nuclear weapons

NYT 6/26 (New York Times news service, includes opinions from: Stephen Flynn, President of the Center for National Policy and CISAC Consulting Professor at Stanford and Graham T. Allison, Harvard political scientist, “Cargo, the Terrorists’ Trojan Horse”, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/27/opinion/the-dangerous-delay-on-port-security.html)
MILLIONS of cargo containers are unloaded… to estimates by the RAND Corporation and the Congressional Research Service.


Terrorists will attack by the end of next year – it’s the consensus of experts

Allison 12 (Graham, Ph. D in Political Science from Harvard, Director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Professor of Government at Harvard, Special Advisor to the Secretary of Defense under President Reagan, ‘Nuclear Terrorism Fact Sheet’, http://www.nuclearsummit.org/files/FACT_SHEET_Final.pdf)
Assessments by Officials with the Best Information… a terrorist attack somewhere in the world by the end of 2013.”


Ports will be targeted – they resonate with the underlying rationale of global extremist groups

Chalk 8 (Peter, Senior Political Scientist at RAND, “The Maritime Dimension of International Security Terrorism, Piracy, and Challenges for the United States”, www.rand.org/pubs/monographs/2008/RAND_MG697.pdf)
It is also worth bearing in mind that maritime… intent¶and elicit considerable media attention if decisively struck.


Extinction

Ahmed 4 (Mohamed Sid, political analysis, Extinction!, Al-Abram Weekly Online, August 26 – September 1, __http://weekly.ahram.org.eg/2004/705/op5.htm__, ME)
A nuclear attack by terrorists will be much more critical… When nuclear pollution infects the whole planet, we will all be losers.


Increasing port security will reduce the risk of a terrorist attack

John Medalia 6 Specialist in National Defense at the Congressional Research Service “Terrorist Nuclear "Attacks on Seaports: Threat and Response” published 2006 http://www.fas.org/irp/crs/RS21293.pdf )
What Priority Should Port Security Have… among ports and other potential targets.


Even if the attack fails it causes war with Russia

Ayson 10 (Robert, Professor of Strategic Studies and Director of the Centre for Strategic Studies: New Zealand at the Victoria University of Wellington,“After a Terrorist Nuclear Attack: Envisaging Catalytic Effects,” Studies in Conflict & Terrorism, Volume 33, Issue 7, July, Available Online to Subscribing Institutions via InformaWorld)
A terrorist nuclear attack, and even the use of nuclear… This might not help the chances of nuclear restraint.


Extinction

Wickersham 11 (Bill, University of Missouri adjunct professor of Peace Studies and a member of The Missouri University Nuclear Disarmament Education Team, citing: Steven Starr, senior scientist with Physicians for Social Responsibility, “Nuclear weapons still a threat”, http://www.columbiatribune.com/news/2011/sep/27/nuclear-weapons-still-a-threat/, 9/27/11)
Nearly 20 years after the Cold War ended… and Whiteman Air Force Base, home of U.S. B-2 bombers deployed at Knob Noster.


New science and innovation makes bio-terrorism easier

Allison 9-7 (Graham Allison is director of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. “Living in the Era of Megaterror” http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/08/opinion/living-in-the-era-of-megaterror.html#h[IaQAbl,2,WtdFsa,2])
Capabilities for producing… we will live in an era of megaterror.


Status quo security allows for easy smuggling of bio-weapons through ports

GSN 9 (Global Security Newswire, news service focused on global security threats, produced by National Journal, “Customs and Border Protection Faulted for Preparation Against Bio, Chem Threats”, http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/customs-and-border-protection-faulted-for-preparation-against-bio-chem-threats/. 11/3/9)
The inspector general for the U.S. Homeland… "A plan to deploy these improved detection resources in our ports will be essential moving forward" (U.S. Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee release, Nov. 2)


A recent influenza strain was created that would cause extinction if bio terrorists had the information – this is comparatively the WORST impact

Prado 12 (Mark Evan, a physicist in the Washington, D.C. region working for the Pentagon in advanced planning in the space program, citing: The Office of Biological Activities (OSB), a division of the US government's National Institute of Health (NIH) which promotes science, safety, and ethics in biotechnology, “Human Extinction by Biotechnology and Nanotechnology”, http://www.permanent.com/human-extinction-biotechnology-nano.html)
As biotechnology has advanced, so has the power of the individual… Back Machine's archival page on PERMANENT.¶ Then came the year 2001.


The information for this strain was released last week – that means it’s a race against time for the aff

GSN 12/4 (Global Security Newswire, “Scientists Air Worries Over Proposed Rules on Avian Influenza Studies”, http://www.nti.org/gsn/article/scientists-air-worries-over-proposed-rules-bird-flu-studies/, 12/4/12)
The Obama administration last week rolled out a… contend that the dangers of such research outweigh any positive outcome, according to Science.¶


A port attack shuts down naval power

Watts 5 [CDR Bob Watts is a 1985 graduate of the U.S. Coast Guard Academy and has served six tours at sea conducting drug/migrant operations, most recently commanding the USCGC STEADFAST (WMEC 623). He is currently assigned as the chief of drug and migrant interdiction at Coast Guard Headquarters, where his responsibilities include drafting migrant policy and strategy, including planning for mass migration. A 2006 graduate of the Naval Postgraduate School’s Center for Homeland Defense and Security, he has advanced degrees from the Naval War College, Old Dominion University, American Military University, and is a doctoral candidate at coastline and 3.4 million square miles of territorial seas and exclusive economic zones in the U.S. maritime domain. 1 Connecting the continental United States… planning process to meeting this threat. The first step in this process is looking for lessons learned that could be used in the current scenario: have we faced this threat before, and if so, what can we learn from the experience?


Unimpeded access to all ports is critical to operation

Talor et al. 7 (Bruce Taylor director of research at the Police Executive Research Forum (PERF) in Washington, D.C; Antony Pate Bruce Kubu;) Protecting America’s Ports: Promising Practices A Final Report Submitted https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/nij/grants/221075.pdf
The U.S. Navyhas considerable assets… but also valuable cargo and time could be lost, as military mobilization would be forced to rely on already overburdened airlift resources.


Maritime power solves all war – deters conflict and ensures defense

Whiteneck and Clark 11 (Commander Bryan Clark U.S. Navy (Retired) and Dr. Dan Whiteneck, “Strategic Choices at the Tipping Point”, Proceedings Magazine - February 2011 Vol. 137/2/1,296)
In light of global economic and strategic realities, here’s how the Navy... When the U.S. Navy can no longer do so, it will indeed be at a “tipping point.”


Navy missile defense makes escalation of war impossible

Carey, 06- Served in the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization and was the Commanding Officer of an AEGIS Ship (John, Washington Times, "SPECIAL TO THE WASHINGTON TIMES", June 26th 2006, Lexis Nexis, KONTOPOULOS)
Ronald Reagan's vision that the United States... to detect a North Korean missile launch and initiate launch orders to interceptors at-sea; or in the U.S.


Contention Two is the Economy


Any type of port terror attack causes immediate shut down – that decimates the economy. Their generic defense doesn’t assume total economic collapse, just recession induced dips

Flynn 3 (Written Testimony before a hearing of the U.S. Senate Governmental Affairs Committee Stephen E. Flynn, Ph.D. a terrorism expert at Northeastern University and former Commander of the U.S. Coast Guard, and a Jeane J. Kirkpatrick Senior Fellow in National Security Studies, and Director of the Council on Foreign Relations Independent Task Force on Homeland Security Imperatives, 3/20/03, “The Fragile State of Container Security”, www.cfr.org/defensehomeland-security/fragile-state-container-security/p5730)
Chairperson Collins, Senator Lieberman, and… as would much of the freight movements that make up international trade.


The U.S. marine transportation system is the lifeblood of the global economy – an attack guarantees total economic collapse

Allen 8 (Admiral Thad, U.S. Coast Guard, “Friend or Foe? Tough to Tell”, U.S. Naval Institute, www.pacnwest.org/docs/friendorfoe.pdf)
Some Americans take for granted how the shelves remain stocked… spreading anxiety throughout the global financial marketplace.


That spills over to the global economy

Schanzer and Eyerman 10(From the IBM Center for the Business of Government, David H., Associate Professor Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke University, Joe, Senior Research Methodologist Director, Health Security Program RTI International, “Strategic Risk Management in Government: A Look at Homeland Security”, Homeland Security Council; 3/31, http://www.homelandcouncil.org/pdfs/digital_library_pdfs/ibmstrategicriskmanagementingovt.pdf)
Scenario Three: Direct Attack on a U.S…. Places like ¶ Hawaii, which depend on shipping for almost every ¶ consumer need, would quickly run out of food.


Attacks don’t need to be successful- perception of port disruption alone will shock the economy and international confidence

Clark et al. 7. (CAPT Bruce G. Clark, USCGR (ret) Director of Maritime Security Projects, Maritime Security Directorate Dept. of Sponsored Projects & Extended Learning -The California Maritime Academy. Dr. Donna J. Nincic , Associate Professor and Chair-Department of Global and Maritime Studies of The California Maritime Academy. CAPT NevinFidler, USCGR (ret) Maritime Security Directorate Dept. of Sponsored Projects & Extended Learning-The California Maritime Academy-The California State University. “Protecting America’s Ports: Are We There Yet?” 10/7)
Why? Because, in this new world of… a managed solution as a part of any counter-terrorism plan


Economic decline causes war

Royal 10 — Jedidiah Royal, Director of Cooperative Threat Reduction at the U.S. Department of Defense, M.Phil. Candidate at the University of New South Wales, 2010 (“Economic Integration, Economic Signalling and the Problem of Economic Crises,” Economics of War and Peace: Economic, Legal and Political Perspectives, Edited by Ben Goldsmith and JurgenBrauer, Published by Emerald Group Publishing, ISBN 0857240048, p. 213-215)
Less intuitive is how periods of economic decline… the occurrence of and conditions created by economic crises. As such, the view presented here should be considered ancillary to those views.


Growth and unemployment are at an all time low

NYT 8/29 (New York Times news service, citing government data, “Economy Still Stuck in Low Gear”, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/30/business/economy/second-quarter-growth-revised-up-to-1-7-percent-rate.html, 8/29/12)
Government data released Wednesday suggested the economy continued… reduce unemployment, which is at 8.3 percent


Economic growth is key to prevent conflict

Bernauera 10 (Climate Change, Economic Growth, and Conflict Thomas Bernauera, Anna Kalbhenna, VallyKoubia,b and Gabriele Ruoffa a ETH Zurich Center for Comparative and International Studies (CIS) and Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED) and b University of Bern Department of Economics and Oeschger Institute for Climate Change Research;http://ncgg.princeton.edu/IPES/2010/papers/S1115_paper1.pdf)
Previous research has shown that reduced levels… of civil conflict is well supported by the existing literature.


New security measures ensure investor, consumer and business confidence

Palac-McMiken 5(EvanorPalac-McMiken, Director of the Economic Analytical Unit at the Department of Foreign Trade and Affairs, “Economic Costs and Benefits of Combating Terrorism in the Transport Sector”, Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/store/10.1111/j.1467-8411.2005.00158.x/asset/j.1467-8411.2005.00158.x.pdf;jsessionid=04AE22510AFBB1EA4756D40DEA0CFA55.d03t03?v=1&t=h4ppdiht&s=3f469b88d024638a8733b4601e8cf7c32550c4c9)
However, counter-terrorism measures can also… It should also be remembered that modelling of a particular scenario is simply for the purpose of illustration.

Loss of confidence creates a negative feedback cycle annihilating the economy

Rubin, Orszag, and Sinai 4 – PhD Economics, Senior Fellow of the Brookings Institute and Chief Global Economist at Decision Economics inc. (Robert E. Rubin, Chairman of Citigroup Financial, Peter R. Roszag, Senior Fellow, Brookings Institute, and Allen Sinai, Decision Economics, “Sustained Budget Deficits: The Risks of Financial and Fiscal Disarray” Paper presented The Andrew Brimmer Policy Forum, “National Economic and Financial Policies for Growth and Stability,” Sunday, 1/4/04)
The loss of investor and creditor confidence, both at home… round of negative feedback effects.


Contention Three is Solvency


Visualization and imaging technology solves

PPIC 6 (Public Policy Institute of California, Citing: Jon D. Haveman, RAND policy expert and JowardShatz, Senior Economist at RAND, “Protecting the Nation’s Seaports:¶ Balancing Security and Cost”, http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/report/r_606jhr.pdf, 2006)
As documentation cannot be taken as trustworthy, and as it is… prod emissions, which are then detected.¶


New computer and software takes out any solvency deficits

PPIC 6 (Public Policy Institute of California, Citing: Jon D. Haveman, RAND policy expert and JowardShatz, Senior Economist at RAND, “Protecting the Nation’s Seaports:¶ Balancing Security and Cost”, http://www.ppic.org/content/pubs/report/r_606jhr.pdf, 2006)
In-Port Imaging. Non-intrusive imaging is analogous to medical¶ imaging that peers through your skin without opening it, such as,¶ classically, x-rays, to see what is inside. Using either x-rays or gamma rays… in its very¶ selective coverage roster, ranging from IBM through ambitious start-ups¶ and agile retreads.¶ 50¶


Despite devastating losses Al Qaeda and terrorist groups continue to expand – this proves their resiliency and means none of your advantage counter-plans solve

Fox News 8/1 (Fox News service, citing the State Department’s Country Report on Terrorism and its top Counterterrorism official Daniel Benjamin, “Al Qaeda gaining 'operational capability' despite core losses, report shows”, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/07/31/al-qaeda-gaining-operational-capability-despite-core-losses-report-shows/, 8/1/12)
Western strikes on Al Qaeda have shown progress… though there remains the risk of unaffiliated foreign fighters traveling to the country and posing the threat of greater violence.

Federal level coordination key to successful security

Harrald 05 [John R, “Sea Trade and Security: an Assessment of the Post-9/11 Reaction,” Web, Fall 05, http://search.proquest.com.proxy.lib.umich.edu/pqrl/docview/220702986/1376BF5C74E6A8F9B1B/5?accountid=14667, 6/19/12]
The threat is real. Terrorist organizations have… must be effectively managed to avoid dysfunctional and costly turf battles.